What is the probability for "Will Manifund give out another loan of size 100kUSD to @MarcusAbramovitch before the end of 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 100kUSD to @MarcusAbramovitch before the end of 2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 13 traders and $9K in volume.

Will Manifund give out another loan of size > 100kUSD to @MarcusAbramovitch before the end of 2025?