Internet of Events Leaderboard Traders Markets Hot Bets Surveillance Pricing

Log in Get Access

Accrue
/Home
/Manifold Markets
/Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

ManifoldActiveBINARY · cpmm-1

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Yes39%

Yes Pool

$143

No Pool

$119

Probability

39%

Volume$1K

24h Volume$0

Liquidity$130

Traders15

CreatorErnie

ClosesMay 2, 2034

View on Manifold →Compare Across Platforms →

Accrue© 2026

Internet of Events Leaderboard Traders Markets Hot Bets Surveillance

The Intelligence Terminal for Prediction Markets

Terms Privacy Risk Disclosure Cookies Disclaimer Acceptable Use