What is the probability for "Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 97% with 256 traders and $275K in volume.

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?