What is the probability for "Will JJ flight 8005 from Lima to Sao Paulo on 2023-09-28 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will JJ flight 8005 from Lima to Sao Paulo on 2023-09-28 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 3 traders and $74 in volume.

Will JJ flight 8005 from Lima to Sao Paulo on 2023-09-28 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution