What is the probability for "Will Jimmy Carterbecome the oldest-living (at any time) governor of any state in the US?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Jimmy Carterbecome the oldest-living  (at any time)  governor of any state in the US?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 14% with 5 traders and $243 in volume.

Will Jimmy Carterbecome the oldest-living (at any time) governor of any state in the US?