What is the probability for "Will Iran cause a halt or full shutdown to oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 22 traders and $6K in volume.

Will Iran cause a halt or full shutdown to oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?

Resolution