What is the probability for "Will I2 flight 3816 from Madrid to Menorca on 2023-09-20 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will I2 flight 3816 from Madrid to Menorca on 2023-09-20 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 94% with 2 traders and $11 in volume.

Will I2 flight 3816 from Madrid to Menorca on 2023-09-20 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution