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/Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

ManifoldResolved: NOBINARY · cpmm-1

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

Yes31%

Yes Pool

$1K

No Pool

$667

Resolution

NO

Probability

31%

Volume$16K

24h Volume$0

Liquidity$1K

Traders112

CreatorBayesian

ClosesApr 10, 2026

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