What is the probability for "Will GPT-4 be able to identify the winner of the Alignment Awards in 1/10 unsorted tournament runs?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will GPT-4  be able to identify the winner of the Alignment Awards in 1/10 unsorted tournament runs?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 48% with 6 traders and $54 in volume.

Will GPT-4 be able to identify the winner of the Alignment Awards in 1/10 unsorted tournament runs?