What is the probability for "Will DB train ICE 693 from Hamburg to Stuttgart on 2023-09-23 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay = 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will DB train ICE 693 from Hamburg to Stuttgart on 2023-09-23 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 65% with 10 traders and $140 in volume.

Will DB train ICE 693 from Hamburg to Stuttgart on 2023-09-23 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

Resolution