What is the probability for "Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by 2024?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 50% with 0 traders and $0 in volume.

Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by 2024?

Resolution