What is the probability for "Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 77 traders and $19K in volume.

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?

Resolution