What is the probability for "Will California experience a 7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will California experience a >7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 5% with 16 traders and $1K in volume.

Will California experience a >7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2023?