What is the probability for "Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype  of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 6% with 7 traders and $275 in volume.

Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025?

Resolution