What is the probability for "Will at least one US private credit fund with $1 billion in AUM announce it is closing to new investors by Jun 15, 2026" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will at least one US private credit fund with >$1 billion in AUM announce it is closing to new investors by Jun 15, 2026" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 81% with 2 traders and $120 in volume.