What is the probability for "Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 6% with 26 traders and $5K in volume.

Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election?

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