What is the probability for "Will any AXRP episode released in 2024 get 10,000 downloads by end of year?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will any AXRP episode released in 2024 get >10,000 downloads by end of year?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 35% with 4 traders and $120 in volume.

Will any AXRP episode released in 2024 get >10,000 downloads by end of year?