What is the probability for "Will any AI model score 80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 34 traders and $2K in volume.

Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?