What is the probability for "Will any AI be able to formalize =90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 17% with 35 traders and $6K in volume.

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?