What is the probability for "Will Anthropic achieve an ELO rating higher than OpenAI’s best model on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (for = 1 week)" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Anthropic achieve an ELO rating higher than OpenAI’s best model on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (for >= 1 week)" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 97% with 31 traders and $3K in volume.

Will Anthropic achieve an ELO rating higher than OpenAI’s best model on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (for >= 1 week)

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