What is the probability for "Will an objective criteria for large scale blackouts in Texas emerge that includes last week and Feb 2021, but not more than 2 other events?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 14% with 5 traders and $132 in volume.

Will an objective criteria for large scale blackouts in Texas emerge that includes last week and Feb 2021, but not more than 2 other events?

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