What is the probability for "Will an LLM score =85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 98% with 12 traders and $708 in volume.

Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?