What is the probability for "Will an Atlas Fellow launch an AGI startup worth $1 million by 2030?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will an Atlas Fellow launch an AGI startup worth >$1 million by 2030?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 99% with 40 traders and $30K in volume.

Will an Atlas Fellow launch an AGI startup worth >$1 million by 2030?