What is the probability for "Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 77 traders and $18K in volume.

Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?

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