What is the probability for "Will a major aviation accident (resulting in fatalities) occur in Alaska between July 21, 2024 and December 31, 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 94% with 12 traders and $5K in volume.

Will a major aviation accident (resulting in fatalities) occur in Alaska between July 21, 2024 and December 31, 2024?

Resolution