What is the probability for "Will a Iranian warship be destroyed in the ports blockade before April 30th" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will a Iranian warship be destroyed in the ports blockade  before April 30th" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 10% with 24 traders and $900 in volume.

Will a Iranian warship be destroyed in the ports blockade before April 30th