What is the probability for "Will a clear (5σ) spectral evidence of life on an exoplanet be published in a peer-reviewed article in 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will a clear (>5σ) spectral evidence of life on an exoplanet be published in a peer-reviewed article in 2024?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 23 traders and $9K in volume.

Will a clear (>5σ) spectral evidence of life on an exoplanet be published in a peer-reviewed article in 2024?

Resolution