What is the probability for "Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth $20 million by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$20 million by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 7% with 65 traders and $12K in volume.

Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$20 million by the end of 2023?