Manifold Creator
tfae
@tfae
Markets by tfae
Will Wonderful Precure (TV) feature a character from a previous season?
$13K3 tradersResolved
83%
Will Unicode 16.0.0 add at least 10 new emoji?
$12K23 tradersResolved
2%
Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?
$7K18 tradersopen
58%
Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker?
$7K60 tradersResolved
9%
Will Wicked (2024) be rated at least 4.0 on Letterboxd?
$7K14 tradersResolved
97%
Tetris: Will czsmall0402 lose a match in Tetra League this year?
$6K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will Chrome disable third-party cookies by the end of 2024?
$5K22 tradersResolved
3%
Will I get Shimya the cat to meow this week?
$5K34 tradersResolved
96%
Will any of my puns get at least 50 likes?
$4K30 tradersResolved
7%
Tetris: Will the next sub-14 sprint submission be illegitimate?
$4K9 tradersResolved
4%
Will an automatic crafting table ship in Minecraft 1.21.0?
$4K25 tradersResolved
96%
Will Acro Trip (TV) rate 7.00 or higher on MyAnimeList?
$4K4 tradersResolved
6%
Will MrBeast release a video about GiveDirectly by the end of 2024?
$3K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will Google Chrome disable Manifest V2 in 2024?
$3K22 tradersResolved
8%
How many times will I eat ramen this weekend?
$3K5 tradersResolved
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Will the TETR.IO Blitz world record be at least 2 million by the end of 2025?
$3K10 tradersResolved
99%
Tetris: Will a second person achieve ≥ 2,000,000 in TETR.IO Blitz this year?
$3K12 tradersResolved
99%
Tetris: Will the fastest 40-line sprint be under 14 seconds by the end of 2025?
$3K16 tradersResolved
97%
Will I beat 4 beginners in TETR.IO this Sunday?
$2K17 tradersResolved
85%
Will a Manifold bot author accidentally leak their API key by the end of 2024?
$2K14 tradersResolved
11%
Is Toby Fox a fan of rationalussy?
$2K20 tradersResolved
55%
Will Lean mathlib have a definition of planar graphs before the end of the year?
$2K15 tradersResolved
2%
Will Serie be alive at the end of the Foundation Festival arc?
$2K10 tradersopen
71%
Will Manifold have at least 2 engaged users at the end of the month? (read desc.)
$2K25 tradersResolved
9%
Will I finish my proof of the five-color theorem by the end of the week?
$1K17 tradersResolved
5%
Will @8 push another "Will this market close above X%" market to 0%?
$1K11 tradersResolved
2%
Is this proof of the union-closed set conjecture true?
$1K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will somebody clone this question?
$1K10 tradersResolved
94%
Will Shikanoko Nokonoko Koshitantan (TV) rate 7.00 or higher on MyAnimeList?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Copper Bulb have an odd-tick delay in Minecraft 1.21.0?
$1K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will Lean mathlib have a definition of graph minors by the end of 2024?
$1K5 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Myhill–Nerode theorem be formalized in Lean mathlib by the end of 2024?
$9628 tradersResolved
35%
Will Übel figure out a way to cut through her ropes?
$9457 tradersopen
81%
Will another Sam step down from a high-profile tech CEO position in November 2024?
$6877 tradersResolved
2%
Will the “sum of 3 palindromes” theorem be formalized by the end of 2024?
$5012 tradersResolved
2%
Will I be attacked by hummus this year?
$49912 tradersResolved
7%
Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure?
$4794 tradersResolved
44%
Will I eat ramen this weekend?
$2408 tradersResolved
28%
Do my colleagues prefer coleslaw or sauerkraut?
$22914 tradersResolved
66%
Will a new cruciferous vegetable be patented by 2030?
$1706 tradersopen
79%