Manifold Creator
Mikhail Samin⚡️
@ms
Markets by Mikhail Samin⚡️
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
$185K285 tradersResolved
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Will I get my laptop back?
$66K43 tradersResolved
0%
Will I be at Manifest?
$66K20 tradersResolved
100%
Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?
$57K182 tradersResolved
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Will I consider posting questions on Manifold a good way to get answers to these questions by the end of 2023?
$34K49 tradersResolved
1%
Will I consider my English pronunciation to be good by the end of 2023?
$33K23 tradersResolved
0%
If I don't write a dating doc, will I start a relationship I'd be excited about this year?
$32K10 tradersResolved
0%
Will I be convinced blue-light blockers don't influence the quality of sleep?
$30K6 tradersResolved
0%
By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge?
$28K53 tradersResolved
1%
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?
$27K54 tradersopen
8%
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
$27K35 tradersResolved
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Yudkowsky & Soares change the book cover | The book is a NYT bestseller
$27K76 tradersResolved
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Who’s the mystery guest at ILIAD?
$17K16 tradersResolved
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AI races: Will Alex Bores be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?
$17K57 tradersopen
44%
Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?
$15K74 tradersopen
91%
Will I publish a post every day of November?
$15K21 tradersResolved
98%
Will Tesla have a 0-60mph < 1 sec car before 2028?
$13K57 tradersopen
5%
Private market on an offline question on AI generated art
$12K2 tradersResolved
100%
Private market on a sleep-related question
$12K4 tradersResolved
100%
By 2025, will OpenAI employees call for Sam Altman resignation in a letter?
$12K79 tradersResolved
5%
Private market on an etymology question
$11K2 tradersResolved
100%
Will anyone successfully prank me to test my skill of being confused by fiction more than by reality?
$11K2 tradersResolved
0%
Will EAs play football in London this Saturday?
$11K5 tradersResolved
100%
Will there be a story about jailbreaking used in emails within the next year?
$10K19 tradersResolved
1%
Will I be happy with the cookies I will have baked during the next week?
$10K2 tradersResolved
100%
Will this question resolve to Yes? (See the description for the resolution criteria)
$10K2 tradersResolved
0%
Will I learn to orient using cardinal directions?
$10K113 tradersResolved
32%
Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?
$10K62 tradersopen
88%
Will I post at least 50 questions on Manifold between February 4 and May 4?
$10K22 tradersResolved
49%
Yudkowsky and Soares' book’s place on the NYT bestseller list
$8K18 tradersResolved
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Has Google DeepMind solved P6 at IMO2025?
$7K39 tradersResolved
3%
How many people working at Manifold will pass the rationality test?
$7K4 tradersResolved
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Will a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029?
$6K44 tradersopen
13%
Will it be confirmed that Julian Hazell is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
$6K29 tradersResolved
25%
Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?
$6K15 tradersopen
65%
“Every Bay Area House Party” House Party in London Prop Bets (add answers!)
$5K41 tradersResolved
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In a year, will I believe humming reduces respiratory infections?
$5K30 tradersResolved
5%
before 2026, will Telegram have given any government access to private messages of its users?
$5K31 tradersResolved
9%
Will it be confirmed that Nathan Young is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
$5K20 tradersResolved
7%
Is Navalny alive on February 17, 2024?
$5K26 tradersResolved
1%