Manifold Creator
Mich
@Mich
Markets by Mich
Who will succeed to Gabriel Attal as a Prime Minister of France consecutively to the Parliament dissolution ?
$74K97 tradersResolved
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How much money will @DianeLetourneur raise during the presales of her poetry collection ?
$45K14 tradersResolved
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La Rochelle Bingo : what will I experience/encounter during my trip ? (add options) (+side bounty)
$17K15 tradersResolved
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Who will dive / jump / swim in the Seine before Paris Olympis 2024 ?
$15K21 tradersResolved
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Will Anne Hidalgo dive / jump / swim in the Seine on June 23rd ?
$13K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will @strutheo slay all top 20 creators or reach 69,420 traders first ?
$12K13 tradersResolved
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Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
$10K39 tradersResolved
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Will Minouche Shafik remain president of Columbia University until EOY 2024 ?
$10K10 tradersResolved
1%
Underrated or overrated ? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are overrated this week ?
$9K42 tradersResolved
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Will I blow up all Mana and quit Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?
$6K20 tradersResolved
2%
By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that any Boeing whistleblower has been granted witness protection ?
$5K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will I manage to halve the time I spend on social media ? [see description]
$5K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will I successfully do my internship report in LaTeX ?
$4K26 tradersResolved
1%
French Parliament elections June-July 2024 megamarket
$4K45 tradersResolved
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(How well) Will Manifold correctly predict the month when Jimmy Carter dies ?
$4K16 tradersResolved
5%
Will I manage to keep the time I spend on social media below 1 hour per day ? (average ; 2-weeks-long follow-up)
$4K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will the (unordered) top 5 in my league be the same at the end of the season ?
$3K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
$3K23 tradersResolved
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Which existing amendment to the Constitution of the United States will be repealed by EOY 2044 ?
$2K14 tradersopen
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At the end of Season 12 (April), will my earned Mana amount cause both promotion and demotion from Diamond ?
$2K7 tradersResolved
2%
Will I get banned from Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?
$2K14 tradersResolved
1%
How many users among the top 10 in Masters League right after the new Mana rates take effect will maintain in Masters ?
$2K2 tradersclosed
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Does Manifold approve the restrictions on the probability range on some markets ?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will Jimmy Carter stay alive until his mock election option on @strutheo’s market is resolved ?
$1K12 tradersclosed
1%
Will Ohio billionaire Larry Connor go to 'Titanic-level depths' and go back to the surface alive by EOY 2030 ?
$1K6 tradersopen
75%
If I make a bingo market, will I think it was a good idea afterwards ?
$1K8 tradersResolved
98%
Will @Mich fully read the EA Handbook before March ? [Bet against me] [Insider tranding]
$1K8 tradersResolved
69%
Will Steve Endacott be elected as a Member of Parliament during the 2024 UK general elections ?
$1K4 tradersResolved
1%
For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?
$1K9 tradersopen
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Would Manifold rather recieve X Mana now or Y Mana after the pivot ?
$9632 tradersclosed
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By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that any Boeing whistleblower has been denied witness protection ?
$8966 tradersResolved
1%
Navier Stonks (ie Will the prize for the resolution of the Navier-Stokes millenium problem be taken ?)
$87118 tradersopen
83%
Will I manage to keep the time I spend on social media below 1 hour per day ? (average ; 1-month(-ish)-long follow-up)
$8228 tradersResolved
95%
Will I fix my sleep schedule ? (25 Dec - 7 Jan, see description)
$7314 tradersResolved
97%
Will Oliver (a plant) survive April ?
$68617 tradersResolved
95%
Fuck around and find out stock
$64710 tradersopen
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How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
$5736 tradersopen
39%
Will I be accepted to the Invisible College (August 2024) ?
$5725 tradersResolved
3%
Will a top-100 chess player accuse another top-100 player of cheating at chess using a brain chip by EOY 2034 ?
$51312 tradersopen
35%
By EOY 2024, will any Boeing whistleblower publicly state they are concerned for their life ?
$49714 tradersResolved
4%