How many markets has L created on Manifold?

L has created 38 prediction markets on Manifold with $34K in total volume.

Manifold Creator

L

Markets by L

will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024?

$6K33 tradersResolved

will jreg make a video involving manifold markets, accurate predictions, etc?

$6K21 tradersResolved

University course explicitly focused on high-level psychology of AI more than humans by end of 2023

$3K31 tradersResolved

where l(x) = 3.511x(1-x), this market resolves to PROB = l(l(l(l(mkt)))) probability

$2K5 tradersResolved

50%

Will lesswrong's debate feature still exist after april fools?

$2K25 tradersResolved

95%

[SHORT] Will the wikipedia page "Thursday Night Massacre" still exist as the page's title in four days?

$1K13 tradersResolved

Will @Crimethinc be unbanned from twitter before june 2023?

$1K9 tradersResolved

Will manifold provide UI to separate the different markets a person has traded in on the user page by the end of 2023?

$1K11 tradersResolved

Is it rude to bet that something bad will happen without taking visible action to prevent it?

$1K4 tradersResolved

15%

will twitter login come back up for more than an hour before market close?

$1K14 tradersResolved

91%

Will manifold ban permanent markets by the end of 2023?

$1K18 tradersResolved

if republicans win senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

$9927 tradersResolved

Will anyone be alive to resolve this market at close?

$93331 tradersResolved

97%

will I be seriously impacted by flooding, landslides, outages, food shortages, water or gas cutoffs, etc, in oakland, ca, before jan 15?

$90723 tradersResolved

12%

if democrats keep senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

$7037 tradersclosed

Will Manifold create an accuracy visualization that shows when people are correct before others?

$5796 tradersResolved

16%

Will VRChat mobile turn out to be real?

$5475 tradersResolved

97%

Before July 1, will there be strongly implicating evidence and/or proof that someone did something that caused the loss of approximately at least one QALY of life in order to win an MM bet?

$45812 tradersResolved

Will manifold trial in 2022 any new methods to increase ease of trade-level interpretability of how a market's price is funded, and what other markets the traders had succeeded from?

$3797 tradersResolved

11%

If real, when will vrchat mobile come out?

$3453 tradersResolved

—

How should I ask if this research paper will generalize to humans? https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2202.08360

$1845 tradersResolved

—

If we survive, which AI researcher will be remembered as the one who found the lynchpin that saved us from doom?

$1819 tradersResolved

—

Will it take more than concatenating into the services list for my friend to add a particular docker-compose service?

$1065 tradersResolved

66%

In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other vote splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

$1001 tradersResolved

In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other anti-auth-vote-splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

$1001 tradersResolved

Will the first AI capable of beating humans at absolutely everything also be able to run a simulation of a cell, stepwise, and accurately predict distributions of arbitrary imaging results of the simulated cell in sync with a physical cell?

$736 tradersResolved

25%

When will VRChat come to Applevision as a native app?

$714 tradersResolved

—

If the linked "google has active agi safety group" market resolves false, will GOOG/VTF decrease from 47% to 38% or less by 2024? (details in description)

$653 tradersResolved

31%

Will manifold actually enforce my block against the image bot on my markets by the end of January 2023?

$567 tradersResolved

43%

Will attempts to slow ai progress continue to appear to be a cause of ai progress speeding up by 2025?

$324 tradersResolved

44%

When will (or did) haiti first reach 0.8 on the HDI, in months after 2022? (Jan 1 2023 = 0)

$101 tradersResolved

90%

If republicans win the house in 2022, will Trump be given the role of speaker of the house at any point before the end of 2023?

$00 tradersResolved

50%

if there is a month on which more than 1-in-30 trans people die of any cause, how-many-in-30 followers of trump will die of any cause the same or following month?

$00 tradersResolved

32%

L

Markets by L

will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024?

will jreg make a video involving manifold markets, accurate predictions, etc?

University course explicitly focused on high-level psychology of AI more than humans by end of 2023

where l(x) = 3.511x(1-x), this market resolves to PROB = l(l(l(l(mkt)))) probability

Will lesswrong's debate feature still exist after april fools?

[SHORT] Will the wikipedia page "Thursday Night Massacre" still exist as the page's title in four days?

Will @Crimethinc be unbanned from twitter before june 2023?

Will manifold provide UI to separate the different markets a person has traded in on the user page by the end of 2023?

Is it rude to bet that something bad will happen without taking visible action to prevent it?

will twitter login come back up for more than an hour before market close?

Will manifold ban permanent markets by the end of 2023?

if republicans win senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

Will anyone be alive to resolve this market at close?

will I be seriously impacted by flooding, landslides, outages, food shortages, water or gas cutoffs, etc, in oakland, ca, before jan 15?

if democrats keep senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

Will Manifold create an accuracy visualization that shows when people are correct before others?

Will VRChat mobile turn out to be real?

Before July 1, will there be strongly implicating evidence and/or proof that someone did something that caused the loss of approximately at least one QALY of life in order to win an MM bet?

Will manifold trial in 2022 any new methods to increase ease of trade-level interpretability of how a market's price is funded, and what other markets the traders had succeeded from?

If real, when will vrchat mobile come out?

How should I ask if this research paper will generalize to humans? https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2202.08360

If we survive, which AI researcher will be remembered as the one who found the lynchpin that saved us from doom?

Will valve release a portable, inside-out-tracked headset in 2022?

Will I run any experiments before market close?

When will VRChat come to Applevision as a native app?

When will valve's next VR headset come out?

Will I have a satisfyingly productive january?

Will it take more than concatenating into the services list for my friend to add a particular docker-compose service?

In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other vote splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

In the 2022 United States general election, will one or more anti-authoritarian-GOTV or other anti-auth-vote-splitting campaigns appear to contribute enough votes to sway an election?

Will the first AI capable of beating humans at absolutely everything also be able to run a simulation of a cell, stepwise, and accurately predict distributions of arbitrary imaging results of the simulated cell in sync with a physical cell?

When will VRChat come to Applevision as a native app?

If the linked "google has active agi safety group" market resolves false, will GOOG/VTF decrease from 47% to 38% or less by 2024? (details in description)

Will manifold actually enforce my block against the image bot on my markets by the end of January 2023?

Will attempts to slow ai progress continue to appear to be a cause of ai progress speeding up by 2025?

When will (or did) haiti first reach 0.8 on the HDI, in months after 2022? (Jan 1 2023 = 0)

If republicans win the house in 2022, will Trump be given the role of speaker of the house at any point before the end of 2023?

if there is a month on which more than 1-in-30 trans people die of any cause, how-many-in-30 followers of trump will die of any cause the same or following month?