Manifold Creator
Bayesian
@Bayesian
Markets by Bayesian
Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]
$5.3M1,718 tradersResolved
2%
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
$1.0M1,629 tradersopen
—
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this month?
$837K631 tradersResolved
—
Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?
$767K495 tradersResolved
1%
Which company has best AI model end of March 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$744K197 tradersResolved
—
Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$661K296 tradersResolved
—
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date
$466K330 tradersopen
—
This market hits 70% after 1-minute grace period? (round 3)
$459K59 tradersResolved
100%
Largest company end of May 2025?
$416K419 tradersResolved
—
Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?
$363K591 tradersopen
—
Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$304K341 tradersResolved
—
can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028
$300K52 tradersopen
46%
S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?
$295K74 tradersopen
1%
Yugi Stock
$291K257 tradersopen
—
Gemini 3 (Google) release date
$283K259 tradersResolved
—
Will any AI reach 20%+ performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2026?
$271K42 tradersResolved
98%
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
$262K236 tradersopen
36%
This market hits 70% after 1-minute grace period? (round 2)
$253K54 tradersResolved
100%
GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR
$226K96 tradersResolved
—
Which company has best AI model end of May 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$222K273 tradersResolved
—
Gemini 3 Pro Preview METR 50% time horizon
$185K186 tradersResolved
—
What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?
$181K83 tradersopen
—
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
$181K344 tradersopen
76%
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
$177K450 tradersResolved
—
Which company has best AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$176K152 tradersResolved
—
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
$175K111 tradersResolved
—
Largest company end of December 2025?
$174K175 tradersResolved
—
Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?
$160K321 tradersResolved
1%
Highest grossing movie in 2025?
$160K176 tradersResolved
—
Largest company end of June 2025?
$157K222 tradersResolved
—
On what DAY will Gemini 3 be released?
$151K164 tradersResolved
—
On what DAY will GPT-5 be released
$131K332 tradersResolved
—
Humanity’s Last Exam lists grok 4 at 45%+?
$129K160 tradersResolved
3%
Which company has best AI model end of June 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$117K159 tradersResolved
—
Time Person of the Year, exact headline [IMPOSSIBLE EDITION]
$114K228 tradersResolved
—
AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?
$105K234 tradersResolved
—
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
$104K56 tradersopen
—
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2025? [Polymarket]
$101K66 tradersResolved
—
Which company has best AI model end of October 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
$101K45 tradersResolved
—
Largest company end of March 2025?
$97K44 tradersResolved
—