Manifold Creator
Limerick Ostrich
@AIBear
Markets by Limerick Ostrich
[SHORT FUSE] Was an F-35 lost over Iran on April 2nd/3rd?
$44K90 tradersResolved
2%
Eurovision 2025 - Semi-final 2: Which countries will qualify for the final?
$22K18 tradersResolved
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Trump announces at least 10% reduction in troops in Germany before May 16th
$22K26 tradersResolved
99%
Eurovision 2025 - Semi-final 1: Which countries will qualify for the final?
$19K22 tradersResolved
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[SHORT FUSE] Will the rescue operation in Iran on April 3rd lead to a successful recovery of at least one pilot?
$19K14 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Russian army reach Pokrovsk by Oct 15th?
$13K35 tradersResolved
1%
Strait of Hormuz escorts prop bets (before May 7th)
$7K37 tradersResolved
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[SHORT FUSE] Will the US publicly confirm that they agreed to unfreezing some of Iran's assets before April 14th?
$4K42 tradersResolved
4%
Will Russia officially accept responsibility for the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 by May 2025
$4K40 tradersResolved
2%
Elon's Tesla promises, Q1 26 Prop Bets
$4K9 tradersopen
—
Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?
$3K67 tradersopen
25%
Will Ukraine armed forces reach the Seim river around Glushkovo and Tyotkino by December 2024?
$3K23 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
$2K25 tradersopen
30%
What price will Silver hit in 2026? (read desc.!)
$2K4 tradersopen
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Finland qualifies for Eurovision 2025 final?
$2K16 tradersResolved
99%
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026
$1K7 tradersopen
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Will the Russian army reach Sudzha (Kursk oblast) by Dec 15th?
$1K15 tradersResolved
1%
What will be the number of monthly active accounts on Mastodon on 2026-10-01
$1K2 tradersopen
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Will OpenAI raise $5 billion before Feb 2025 and will it survive/crash? [Ed Zitron's prediction, read desc]
$1K9 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic collapse or be poached/acquired by Aug 2025? (Ed Zitron's prediction)
$1K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Russian army reach Vuhledar by Oct 15th?
$9106 tradersResolved
99%
Will the state of emergency in Kursk oblast be lifted/eased before October 2024?
$89910 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Russian army reach Sudzha (Kursk oblast) by Oct 11th?
$89811 tradersResolved
1%
Did Peanut the squirrel or Fred the raccoon have rabies?
$8277 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Russian army reach Sudzha (Kursk oblast) by Nov 15th?
$76312 tradersResolved
1%
Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak
$59811 tradersopen
—
Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between July 16th and Aug 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG)
$5866 tradersResolved
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Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
$3857 tradersopen
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Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
$2714 tradersopen
47%
Will the Russian army reach Sudzha (Kursk oblast) by Oct 15th?
$2501 tradersResolved
8%
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?
$2275 tradersopen
34%
Will William Ruto serve full term as the president of Kenya
$1603 tradersopen
72%
Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030
$11010 tradersopen
67%