What is the probability for "Teun Janssen, candidate #3 on the Dutch Volt list, will be elected to the European Parliament in 2024." on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Teun Janssen, candidate  #3 on the Dutch Volt list, will be elected to the European Parliament in 2024." on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 6% with 11 traders and $1K in volume.

Teun Janssen, candidate #3 on the Dutch Volt list, will be elected to the European Parliament in 2024.