What is the probability for "So far, 3 defendants have plead guilty in the Georgia/Trump case. Will one more defendant plead guilty before year end?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "So far, 3 defendants have plead guilty in the Georgia/Trump case.  Will one more defendant plead guilty before year end?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 93% with 8 traders and $266 in volume.

So far, 3 defendants have plead guilty in the Georgia/Trump case. Will one more defendant plead guilty before year end?

Resolution