What is the probability for "Simon Birmingham will take leadership of the federal Liberal Party in Australia within one month of the next election." on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Simon Birmingham will take leadership of the federal Liberal Party  in Australia within one month of the next election." on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 11 traders and $2K in volume.

Simon Birmingham will take leadership of the federal Liberal Party in Australia within one month of the next election.

Resolution