What is the probability for "#QuickMarkets : Will the US and Iran issue a joint statement announcing a formal agreement by February 12, 2026?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "#QuickMarkets :  Will the US and Iran issue a joint statement announcing a formal agreement by February 12, 2026?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 5% with 16 traders and $638 in volume.

#QuickMarkets : Will the US and Iran issue a joint statement announcing a formal agreement by February 12, 2026?

Resolution