What is the probability for "[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Typhoon Saola move eastwards by 1 degree longitude while at or above Tropical Storm strength?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 10% with 9 traders and $882 in volume.

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Typhoon Saola move eastwards by 1 degree longitude while at or above Tropical Storm strength?

Resolution