What is the probability for "Liz Cheney will be elected by the House of Representatives to be the speaker of house before December 1st 2023." on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 4% with 13 traders and $2K in volume.

Liz Cheney will be elected by the House of Representatives to be the speaker of house before December 1st 2023.

Resolution