What is the probability for "Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing 400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing >400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is — with 52 traders and $36K in volume.

Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing >400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?