What is the probability for "[HARD CRITERIA, READ DESC] Will all "gpt2-chatbot" models in LMSYS prove to be new, improved models from OpenAI?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 97% with 153 traders and $42K in volume.

[HARD CRITERIA, READ DESC] Will all "gpt2-chatbot" models in LMSYS prove to be new, improved models from OpenAI?

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