What is the probability for "If Russia first detonates a nuclear weapon non-offensively in 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon offensively within 1 month?" on Manifold?

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Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 14% with 2 traders and $150 in volume.

If Russia first detonates a nuclear weapon non-offensively in 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon offensively within 1 month?

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