What is the probability for "If Phil Arballo is a candidate for the CA-13 House district in 2022, and the other candidate is a Republican, will he win the House seat?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 50% with 0 traders and $0 in volume.

If Phil Arballo is a candidate for the CA-13 House district in 2022, and the other candidate is a Republican, will he win the House seat?

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