What is the probability for "If a nuclear weapon detonates in a NATO country in 2022, will 3 million Americans die of Nuclear war?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "If a nuclear weapon detonates in a NATO country in 2022, will >3 million Americans die of Nuclear war?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 31% with 8 traders and $260 in volume.

If a nuclear weapon detonates in a NATO country in 2022, will >3 million Americans die of Nuclear war?