What is the probability for "How confident will I be in a year, after Dr Will Powers' claims, that a majority of trans people have "MTHFR mutations"?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 17% with 10 traders and $315 in volume.

How confident will I be in a year, after Dr Will Powers' claims, that a majority of trans people have "MTHFR mutations"?

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