What is the probability for "Hostage: Will Evan Gershkovich be freed from Russian prison by June 30, 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Hostage: Will Evan Gershkovich be freed from   Russian prison by June 30, 2024?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 3% with 6 traders and $3K in volume.

Hostage: Will Evan Gershkovich be freed from Russian prison by June 30, 2024?