What is the probability for "Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 2% with 24 traders and $7K in volume.

Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?

Resolution