What is the probability for "EXTREMELY LITERAL JUDGING: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 3% with 13 traders and $2K in volume.

EXTREMELY LITERAL JUDGING: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)

Resolution