What is the probability for "Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on energy policy, will 10 non-officers attend?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on energy policy, will >10 non-officers attend?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 45% with 1 traders and $10 in volume.

Conditional on WWU SEA having a meeting on energy policy, will >10 non-officers attend?